Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities
408
FXUS63 KMPX 172302
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
502 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A clipper moves in tonight with light snow and gusty winds,
similar impacts to Friday with another Winter Weather Advisory
in effect.
- Very cold wind chills tonight in the 15 to 25 below range and
tomorrow night a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for wind
chills in the 25 to 35 below range.
- Below to much below normal temperature for the rest of the
week with the next snow chance midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Little forcing remains for snow this evening, but observed
soundings indicate the stratus clouds overhead are in the DGZ.
This means we could still see some snow for the remainder of the
evening, but with little to no additional accumulation. Current
surface analysis has generally high pressure to our southwest
and our next clipper low to our northwest in the Canadian
Prairies. This has kept winds elevated since the pressure
gradient has only lightened some today. This brief break won`t
last long as the clipper is fast approaching. It should be
moving into the across the international border by 06Z and
starting to impact parts of western Minnesota shortly
thereafter. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect tonight for
another round of blowing snow. Similar to this last event snow
amounts are not expected to be high (1 to 3 inches), but wind
gusts are forecast up to around 45 mph. With some of the
blowable snowpack from this last snow still around combined with
some fresh snow there should be ample snow to blow around. The
advisory is for where the higher winds are expected based on the
expected track of the clipper. Parts of the advisory area,
especially Stevens, Pope, and Douglas Counties will likely see
periods of whiteout conditions. Confidence currently was not
high enough that this would occur for three hours or more, so a
blizzard warning was not issued. If a blizzard warning is issued
like it has been in the Red River Valley, it will would be an
extension of the issued blizzard warning into other parts of
west central Minnesota. The clipper itself should be mostly
through by noon, but gusty winds and therefore blowing snow will
continue well into the afternoon and evening aided by continued
strong cold air advection. This cold air combined with gusty
winds will bring wind chill values down into the 15 to 25 below
range tonight and tomorrow night a Cold Weather Advisory is in
effect for wind chills in the 25 to 35 below range. Tomorrow
night will see colder temperatures and thus colder wind chills.
Monday will be cold with temperature unlikely to make it out of
the single digit above zero as gusty winds from the northwest
continue to bring cold air in. By Monday evening winds will
finally come down as the profile becomes less favorable for
mixing and the pressure gradient lightens. Looking ahead to the
rest of the week continued northwest flow will bring in cold air
from Canada. The coldest of this air looks to arrive next
weekend where air temperatures could fall into the teens below
zero. Temperatures will be below normal to much below normal
with high 10 to 20 below normal during what is one of the
coldest weeks of the year for our climate normals. Safe to say
this will be persistently cold week. Another quick moving system
still looks likely to move across the broader region midweek.
Compared to yesterday starting to see some more agreement among
the global ensembles for this system and as expected the NBM
PoPs have come up as well. This looks like another light
snowfall event, so once again it would be up to the winds to
lead to much of an impact. However with the cold recent snow
will likely not crust over and could still be blowable by then.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 455 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Lots of clearing in western-central-southern MN have allowed
some SKC to SCT observations prior to sunset while far southern
MN into western WI is still dealing with cloud cover, including
MVFR ceilings at RNH-EAU. VFR conditions will remain for the MN
TAFs while MVFR conditions look to continue through the
overnight hours for the WI TAFs. MVFR ceilings for all sites
return overnight ahead of the next clipper-type system to
slide across the area tomorrow. Snowfall will resume around
sunrise Sunday morning and persist through mainly the first half
of the daylight hours tomorrow. Although wind speeds will
diminish compared to today, more organized/intense snowfall will
likely reduce visibility to IFR levels for several hours late
Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Snowfall will
diminish Sunday afternoon, with overall accumulations in the
1-2" range. The concern Sunday afternoon-evening will be the
stronger NW winds interacting with the newly fallen powdery-type
snow, resulting in BLSN conditions. Have indicated as such with
some brief improvement after the actual snowfall but some
reduction in visibility with the increase in speeds.
KMSP...Dry/VFR for the rest of this afternoon through the early
morning hours. The next arrival of snowfall starts near the
morning push on Sunday. There is some uncertainty as to the
intensity of the snow at the start but have settled on MVFR
visibility initially with IFR shortly thereafter. Could even be
earlier than 13z (potentially 12z). IFR visibility snowfall will
then last for a few hours, although intensity is not expected
to be greater than 0.5 in/hr for any great length, then snowfall
will diminish from midday onward with snowfall ending near
sunset. Overall accumulations will again be light, in the 1-2"
range. Noticeably stronger winds develop Sunday afternoon-
evening and this could result in some HZ/BLSN issues for the
Sunday evening push. Have held off that scenario at this point
but such visibility drops cannot be ruled out.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Winds W 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -SN/MVFR late. Wind S to NW 5kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for Blue
Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi-
Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-
Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-
Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-
Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-
Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-
Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-
Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-
Yellow Medicine.
WI...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for Barron-
Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JPC
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion
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