Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities

732
FXUS63 KMPX 241855
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1255 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures gradually warm through early next week with
  temperatures returning to above freezing during the daytime

- Light snow/flurries possible today and tomorrow, but any
  accumulations expected to be minimal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

Today and Tomorrow... Warmer air advecting in today will lift
temperatures into the 20s with a few lower 30s along the Buffalo
Ridge. This WAA combined with a short wave and jet streak aloft has
given the forcing for snow. Looking at radar reflectivity snow is
evident, but the challenge today will be dry air. Much of the snow
will not be reaching the surface for this reason. The cooler areas
north of I-94 will be more saturated and therefore have the higher
probability of precipitation. This will provide for a larger window
where the lower atmosphere will be saturated enough for some snow
accumulation. The other limiting factor with today`s snow chances is
that the saturation aloft is not in the DGZ. This will help limit
the snow ratios we see and keep snow amounts under an inch. Looking
towards the global ensembles almost all members have QPF, but light
QPF north of I-94. Farther south more members join in on a dry
forecast. Another round of snow possible tonight into Saturday tied
to wrap around from today`s system and the passage of a cold front
associated with a low over Canada. Moisture looks even more limited
with this next round of snow, so snow chances are less certain. Any
snow that falls will once again be under an inch. What is more
certain with this next frontal passage will be a shift to a cold and
gusty northwest wind. Strong mixing behind the cold front will
provide for gusts as high as 30 mph on Saturday. This should drop by
the evening following the typical diurnal cycle. Despite this
temperatures tomorrow are not expected to be significantly different
from today.

Sunday through Tuesday...After a brief stint of CAA the warm air
will return Sunday through Tuesday. This will help to lift
temperatures up into the lower 40s in southern Minnesota where it
remains snow free and above freezing into central Minnesota and
western Wisconsin where some snow remains. This should also provide
for some melting of the shallow snow depth where it exists. With a
period of zonal flow, not expecting much in the way of weather these
days. So the warmer temperatures are the main story. There are a few
isolated members of the global ensembles with some light QPF on
Tuesday, but the frequency is so low (less than 10% of members) that
precipitation is unlikely.

Rest of the week... Later in the week there are signals within
ensemble guidance that the rather stagnant upper pattern finally
starts to move. When this breaks and how it evolves still differs
greatly between members. So the later part of the week has increased
uncertainty. Could we see a system that actually gives us a snow
storm? Some members say yes, but most do not. With the spread in
guidance it is too soon to say. Even temperature forecasts for the
later part of the week have significantly higher spread for this
reason (beyond the usual increase in spread with time).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

MVFR cigs/vis associated with snow showers has largely failed to
materialize late this morning. Went ahead and pulled back on the
-SN/MVFR conditions a bit, with high end MVFR cigs expected
later this afternoon/this evening. Overnight, things will be
right on the line of VFR with winds becoming southwesterly to
westerly at 5-10kts through early Saturday. Gusts will come up
quickly after sunrise with another round of MVFR cigs likely.

KMSP...Confidence has decreased in seeing MVFR/IFR conditions
this afternoon with -SN, so have adjusted the TAF accordingly.
Cigs will be flirting with MVFR overnight, but kept things VFR
for now. Breezy northwest winds will develop by late tomorrow
morning and continue through the end of the forecast period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind WSW 10-15G25 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...Dye

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion