Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities

746
FXUS63 KMPX 160520
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible this afternoon to
  evening. Strong wind gusts are the primary concern,
  especially in western Minnesota.

- Quiet Tuesday, followed by our best chance for showers and
  storms this week throughout the day Wednesday.

- Temperatures remain near normal in the mid to upper 70s for
  highs through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Satellite has continued to show cumulus bubbling underneath a
scattered cirrus deck that has persisted throughout the day, the
main consequence of which is the surface thermal profile ahead of
potential showers and storms later this afternoon and evening. There
are a few storms ongoing in portions of South Dakota that have
produced some wind gusts around 60mph (base severe thunderstorm
level), and these storms will be moving into western Minnesota
within a couple hours. Most high resolution guidance maintains the
presence of showers and storms through Minnesota before they weaken
after heating ends this evening, with winds being the primary
concern even from decaying cells later in the event. Timing wise, we
will start to see some showers in western Minnesota within the hour,
with the best environment along the upper level shortwave lagging
behind the leading edge by an hour or so. The Twin Cities impacts
look to start closer to 7pm, ending rapidly as we start to cool
cutting off whatever instability we have remaining. Even as
instability dwindles to nothing, we could see a few strong gusts
from collapsing storms as late as 9pm as showers persist into
western WI into the overnight hours. Generally, we expect some gusty
winds to cause some isolated impacts, but widespread severe weather
is not expected with most of the activity more likely to be covered
via Special Weather Statement than Severe Thunderstorm Warning given
the environment. As of 230pm, our neighboring offices to the west in
Aberdeen (ABR), and Sioux Falls (FSD) have one severe thunderstorm
warning for some reported 60mph gusts and a Special Weather
Statement for potential 40-60mph gusts respectively.

Showers look to exit western WI a few hours after sunrise with
Tuesday showing a window of clearing between the departing/weakening
showers to the east and another round of showers and storms from the
west by the evening to overnight. High resolution guidance that
reaches through the first half of Wednesday including the 12/18z
HRRR/RRFS have begun to resolve an MCS type feature Wednesday
morning as a nocturnal LLJ couples with upper level forcing via left
exit region of an upper level jet streak. With surface temperatures
in the low to mid 50s during the morning, instability will generally
be the limiting factor with the wind threat being most apparent if
we see some heavier showers and evaporative cooling momentum
enhanced gusts. An early-Spring strength surface low will spun up
and track along the aforementioned left exit region of the upper
level jet streak coupling with the mid level shortwave to produce a
strong surface low, and based on the track would result in some area
wide showers and perhaps a few weak storms throughout the day with
showers departing early Thursday as the surface low pushes over the
Great Lakes. Forecast soundings continue to show some instability
building during the day, however aside from a brief window in the
morning for western WI and perhaps far southern MN depending on the
low track, we are not located in the idea position for severe
weather with the better focus being to our south in portions of
Missouri, southern Iowa, and Illinois.

A weak Canadian high moves into the region behind the departing
system to end the week but we maintain our northwesterly flow aloft
in an almost clipper-like winter pattern, bringing potential for
more shortwave energy and isolated showers and storms into the early
weekend. Ensemble guidance across the board is much less
enthusiastic about precipitation chances after Wednesday`s system
until at least early next week, with fairly low confidence in
individual systems beyond the weekend such that the forecast is
likely to change as we get closer. Temperature wise, the GEFS
produce a more amplified pattern towards the end of the period
resulting in some gradually warming temperatures, with the EPS
flatter pattern keeping us in the mid to upper 70s for longer and
even into the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Thunderstorm activity has greatly diminished as we have gotten
later into the night. A few showers will continue to move across
Minnesota and Wisconsin overnight into the morning. Generally
VFR with some chance at MVFR during periods of rain in the
morning. Tuesday in general should be more of a break between
rounds of rainfall with VFR conditions. There is a chance that
the next round could start for western Minnesota sites by the
end of this period, but confidence was not high enough for TAF
inclusion yet.

KMSP...Another round of now mainly rain showers to the west will
track over the airfield later this morning. Based on
observations to the best this looks like VFR rain with few
impacts. Winds will pick up and fall again along the usual
diurnal trend today.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc -TSRA/IFR. Wind SE bcmg NW 5-15G20 kts.
THU...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-15G20 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...NDC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion