Forecast Discussion / NWS-Twin Cities

093
FXUS63 KMPX 131657
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1157 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms expected
  through midday today, but with no severe weather.

- Additional chances for rain Friday through Saturday and again
  next week as we enter a more active pattern. That said,
  rainfall amounts continue to diminish for each event.

- Temperatures to cool to near normal levels today through the
  latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The wavy west-to-east quasi-stationary front referenced in
previous discussions still remains draped over the Central
Plains into the mid-Mississippi River Valley and southern Ohio
Valley regions. Weak high pressure sits centered over the Great
Lakes, spread over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Scattered showers with a few weak embedded thunderstorms will
continue to drift southeast from eastern SD through
southwestern-southern MN into northern IA through daybreak,
although with no severe weather expected as the dynamics and
best instability will sit well south of the WFO MPX coverage
area.

A relative break in the action is expected from this afternoon
into tonight, then another round of showers with possibly a
few thunderstorms will develop over far southern MN on Friday
then slowly spread northward Friday night through Saturday. The
aforementioned front to the south will kink northward into the
Dakotas Friday into Saturday in response to an upper level
disturbance rushing across the area within a more zonal flow
aloft. This will commence weak cyclogenesis over central ND on
Saturday, with that newly-formed low pressing east into the
Great Lakes by Saturday evening. QPF continues to drop with this
Friday-Saturday spread of rainfall, so although the rainfall is
greatly welcome across the area, this will not be anything to
put significant dents into the ongoing drought over much of
MN/WI.

A decent drying out period is expected from late Saturday night
through late Monday with flattened ridging moving across the
area aloft underneath surface high pressure. Come Monday night,
another west-to-east frontal boundary looks to drop south from
central Canada into the northern tier CONUS while zonal flow
resumes. This will bring Pacific moisture across the Rockies
into the Upper Midwest to interact with the newly-arriving
front, putting chances for rainfall daily into the forecast
starting Monday night and continuing through midweek. No strong
storms or heavy rain is forecast for any given 12-hr period,
just occasional rain showers here and there for each day.

Temperatures will drop back to near normal levels starting today
with more zonal flow aloft developing and cooler Canadian air
taking up more of a residence over the northern tier states.
With no appreciable airmass change coming through at least the
middle of next week, temperatures are expected to remain within
a couple degrees of normal values throughout this forecast.
Should any days feature more rainfall than not, temperatures
could be held a few more degrees below normal than currently
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

A band of scattered light rain showers will continue for the
next 2-3 hours across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin.
Brief bouts of MVFR visibility are possible with the heaviest
showers. Broken to overcast mid- level stick around through the
day & dissipate this evening. Winds will generally be easterly
around 5 kts today & tonight. Winds become slightly more
southeasterly tomorrow morning with speeds increasing & gusts up
to 20 kts expected by late morning.

KMSP...Any rain showers are expected to remain very light with
minimal visibility reduction. Brief bouts of MVFR visibility
are possible with the heaviest rain showers.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA and MVFR/IFR. Wind SE 10 kts shifting to W.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kts.&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...ETA

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion